Ben’s NJ Primary Rundown
Hello, and welcome to my Primary Rundown, where I plan to go over the interesting Congressional Primaries in New Jersey, which are finishing up today. I am going to go over the Democratic Primaries for NJ02, NJ05, and NJ08. I will also go over the Republican Primaries in NJ03 and NJ05. I also will go over both parties’ primaries for the United States Senate. I give a rundown of the districts, the candidates, and how I think the race will go. This article is a combined version of all the articles I have written over the past 2 weeks on the primaries.
Mehta and Singh compete to take on Booker
Senator Cory Booker is up for his third election, as he seeks to win a 2nd full term in the Senate, following his bid for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Following Senator Bob Menendez’s 11 point victory in 2018 despite the race being considered competitive by numerous outlets, as well as the dominance of the Democratic Party in New Jersey at the Federal Level, the general election is not considered competitive, with the most recent polling by Monmouth University showing Booker up with 55% of the vote compared to his most likely opponents 32%. Thus the primaries are the only place this race is likely to be interesting barring an unforeseen development. Senator Booker faces a primary challenge from the left, while the Republican nomination has come down to two main candidates.
Senator Booker is in very good shape for the upcoming primary, having the support of virtually the entire state’s Democratic organization and remaining popular with most members of the party. His only opponent on the ballot is Lawrence Hamm, who is challenging Booker from the left. Hamm is the chair of Senator Bernie Sander’s New Jersey campaign and at 17 years old, was appointed to the Newark Board of Education. However Senator Booker remains a prohibitive if not nearly guaranteed favorite for re-election, as Hamm has struggled to fund raise, or gain organizational support, and is unlikely to come close to unseating Booker in the primary.
The primary on the Republican Side however, is far more interesting. There are two main candidates running, Rik Mehta, the front runner, who was an FDA official during the Obama Administration, and Hirsh Singh, an engineer. Singh has captured the county line in Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, and Ocean County, while Mehta has secured the line in every other county except for Sussex which does not grant the line, and Morris county where he does not have the line but appears on the ballot under their slogan. The counties that Mehta has the line in account for around 69% of the Republican Voters in the state as of June 2020, while Singh’s counties account for around 18% of such voters. Mehta also has the support of Chris Christie, the former governor of the state.
This primary has become heated in the past few weeks, with Hirsh Singh sending out literature to voters which told voters who had voted for Mehta, to not send in their ballots and request an additional one to vote for Singh. This has prompted numerous county chairs to request Singh to drop out of the race, which he has not taken well, calling his opponent, a “Democratic Plant” according to Nikita Biryukov, a reporter at the New Jersey Globe. Meanwhile the State Attorney General has told Singh to cease sending said literature. There are three other candidates on the ballot, but none of them have won an organizational line or attracted significant support and barring something unforeseen, none of them will finish in the top 2.
Senator Cory Booker is a near certain lock for re-nomination, and barring a massive upset should win by a large margin. I rate the NJ Democratic Senate Primary as Safe Booker. While Hamm might do well, potentially in the 25–35% range, he is unlikely to perform significantly above that, especially with the Presidential Race not being contested anymore, which could have aided him a bit. While he may win some municipalities or a county, Booker is an extremely heavy favorite to win the primary. The Republican side is more contested, but It would be an upset if someone besides Rik Mehta won, I currently rate this race as Likely Mehta. Mehta is the less controversial candidate, and has far greater organization support among New Jersey Republicans then Singh, who has ran for two other elections and lost the primary both times, running for Governor in 2017 when he came in a distant 3rd, with under 10% of the vote, and 2018 where he came in 2nd to Seth Grossman, for the Republican Nomination in the 2nd district, losing by 8.5%
Harrison V. Kennedy in South Jersey
The Primary for the Democratic Nomination in New Jersey’s 2nd district has turned into one of the most watched primaries in the state, as 5 candidates vie to take on Jeff Van Drew, who switched to the Republican Party in the winter. The two main candidates are Brigid Callahan Harrison, a professor at Montclair State University, and Amy Kennedy, a teacher, who is married to former Congressman Patrick Kennedy. Will Cunningham, a candidate in the primary in 2018 is also running but has received less media attention and no organizational lines. Two other candidates are running but are not considered major factors in the race. The race has been described as a proxy war between state democratic factions, with Senate President Steve Sweeney backing Harrison and Governor Murphy backing Kennedy.
The 2nd district is the largest in the state by land area and consists of a sizable amount of the Southern portion of the state. In 2018, Atlantic County.counted for 40% of the vote cast in the Democratic Primary, with Cape May, Cumberland, and Gloucester all counting for between 13% and 16% of the vote. Salem counted for 8%, Ocean for around 5.5%, and Burlington and Camden both counted for under 2% each. The district has had a hectic few years, with then State Senator Jeff Van Drew flipping the seat during the Democratic wave in 2018, by a 7.7% margin against Seth Grossman, an extremely controversial former Atlantic County Freeholder. Van Drew then voted against Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House, simply saying “No!” when asked for his vote. Van Drew then switched Parties to the Republicans in 2019, after voting against Impeaching President Trump, since it became apparent he would face a Primary Challenge, likely from Brigid Harrison, who would have the backing of the Democratic Organization in the district.
Arguably the Frontrunner, Brigid Callahan Harrison, a professor at Montclair State University, who was going to run against Van Drew in the Primary, until he switched parties, has the support of a lot of the state’s Democratic Establishment, including endorsements from both Senator’s Booker and Menendez. Amy Kennedy, who is running with the support of Progressives in the State, including Governor Murphy, is a teacher, who has lived in New Jersey since she married Patrick Kennedy in 2011. Will Cunningham, an investigator for the House Oversight Committee who ran in 2018, has the support of numerous progressive organizations in the state, and is running to the left of both Harrison and Kennedy. Meanwhile there are two other candidates in the race, John Francis, who is a commissioner in West Cape May, is also running, as is Robert Turkavage, a former FBI Agent who ran in the Republican primary in 2018, and is the most conservative candidate in the race.
Harrison has the support of Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, and Gloucester Democratic Parties, which combined account for about 45% of the Democratic Primary Vote, by 2018 numbers. Kennedy has the support of the Atlantic County Democrats Party. Atlantic County however accounts for the largest single county in terms of votes in the Democratic Primary, accounting for nearly 41% of all votes cast in the 2018 primary. Meanwhile Ocean and Salem County did not award the line, and combined accounted for almost 14% of voters in the primary electorate.
Meanwhile, endorsements in the race have been all over the place. Harrison has the most impressive endorsement list, with both Senator’s Booker and Menendez backing her, alongside Representatives Gottheimer and Sires. State Senate President Steve Sweeney supports her as well, as do numerous labor unions. Kennedy however has the support of Governor Phil Murphy, who is not on great terms with Sweeney, as well as the support of House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer. Lieutenant Governor Oliver has also endorsed her, alongside the Communication Workers of America and National Educational Association. Cunningham has the support of the Atlantic County chapter of Our Revolution, a Sanders aligned group, and numerous other progressive organizations.
Harrison has heavily leaned in on the support of Senator Cory Booker, who is up on Tuesday’s ballot as well, as he remains broadly popular with New Jersey Democrats. He featured in her first TV ad which recently aired. Harrison has attacked Kennedy for a Super PAC that supported her that appeared to only be funded by Patrick Kennedy, her husband. Patrick Kennedy, who has been involved in his spouses campaign, meanwhile has attacked Harrison as being controlled by George Norcross and the South Jersey Machine. This race has become one of the closest and most interesting races in the state, as both Steve Sweeney and Phil Murphy hope for their favored candidate to prevail on Tuesday, and win the nomination to take on Jeff Van Drew in the fall.
Out of all the races on Tuesday, this one is the hardest to predict. Both Harrison and Kennedy have very realistic paths to victory. If I had to guess right now how this race is going, I would rate it as Tilt Harrison. Harrison’s campaign has more organizational support, as well as sharing the line with Cory Booker in numerous countries. This race is very possibly going to be decided in the single digits and the outcome might not be known for days, if not weeks, as mail in ballots are counted. If Harrison see’s good margins in Cape May, Gloucester, and Cumberland, while holding losses to a minimum in Atlantic, she is probably in good shape for a win, while if Kennedy can win a sizable Atlantic victory and hold her own in the rest of the district, she can win the nomination.
Richter V. Gibbs, the Battle to take on Andy Kim
The Republican Nomination for the Third District in New Jersey is one of the most heated and nasty races in the State right now and will likely shape up to be a close race on election day. Following Congressman Andy Kim’s defeat of Representative Tom MacArthur in 2018, the seat was considered a top target by the GOP to take back their House Majority.
The third district consists of parts of Ocean and Burlington County and each candidate is aiming to win their county by a large margin and hold their own in the others. In 2018, Burlington cast about 47% of the vote in the uncontested GOP Primary, while Ocean cast 53%. The last time the Republican nomination was contested in this district was in 2014, when Tom MacArthur beat Steve Lonegan for the nomination by nearly 20 points, winning Burlington by 20% and Ocean by 19%. Burlington Counted for 52% of the vote in 2014, compared to Oceans 48%.
The Republican primary consists of two candidates, Former Hill International CEO David Richter, and Former Burlington County Freeholder Kate Gibbs. This primary become a nasty fight between the two as support largely breaks down on regional lines with Kate Gibbs having the support of the Burlington County GOP and the Ocean County GOP lining up behind Richter, who entered this race after dropping out of the race in the 2nd district when Rep Van Drew switched parties and gained Trump’s endorsement. There are more republicans in the Ocean County part of the district, which gives Richter a slight advantage going into the election day, but not a prohibitive one.
Meanwhile, Representative Kim faces no primary opposition and has secured his place on the ballot for a second term without any competition. If I had to guess who will win the election on the 7th, I think Richter is a favorite due to his support in Ocean County but Gibbs could still win by winning Burlington County by a sizable margin and not losing Ocean by too much. I would rate this race as Leans Richter as of now, and this will be a close race on election day. A big if will be what percentage of the vote each County makes up for. If both counties cast similar shares of the vote to 2018 then Richter should be a slight favorite, while either county increasing their vote share bodes well for the Candidate with the county line there. If Ocean County casts a larger share of the vote then they did in 2018, then Richter would be a strong favorite to win, while Burlington would need to likely count for a sizable amount more of the vote than usual for Gibbs to be favored.
Gottheimer v. Kreibich: The Fundraising Machine’s First Contested Primary
Congressman Josh Gottheimer is facing his first contested Democratic Primary in New Jersey’s 5th district since he won the nomination in 2016 to take on Scott Garret. Gottheimer, who flipped this R+3 Seat in 2016, and won re-election by double digits in 2018, is being challenged from the left by Glen Rock Councilwoman, Dr Arati Kreibich, who entered the race in 2019, criticizing Gottheimer for being one of the most “Pro Trump Democrats in the House”. Gottheimer however remains a heavy, if not prohibitive favorite to win re-nomination in next week’s election barring a massive upset.
The 5th district’s democratic voter base is nearly entirely located in Bergen County, with over 80% of Democratic Votes cast during the 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary being cast in this section of the District. Despite losing the other 3 counties in the district by between 7% and 19%, Hillary Clinton’s 29% margin in Bergen County helped her carry the district by over 20%. However this district is home to significant amounts of Sussex and Warren counties, the only two that Bernie Sanders carried in 2016.
Gottheimer has secured the organizational line in every county in the district, and has the support of prominent Democrats including both Senators Booker and Menendez, Governor Murphy, numerous State Senators and Assembly-members who represent parts of the 5th district, Speaker Pelosi, as well as numerous prominent Pro-Democratic Organizations such as End Citizens United, The Human Rights Campaign, The Sierra Club, and the Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Kreibich on the other hand has the support of two prominent progressives on the national level, Senator Bernie Sanders, and Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley. She also has the support of Our Revolution’s New Jersey Chapter, and Indivisible. Krebich’s support among progressives is no surprise as she is running in support of a Green New Deal, and Medicare for All, compared to Gottheimer who is running on his record as being bipartisan and a moderate in Congress.
Their have been two known polls conducted of this primary race, both of which show Congressman Gottheimer with a strong lead over Arati Kreibich, with the most recent poll, a Gottheimer Internal, conducted by TargetSmart showing Gottheimer with 62% of the vote compared to Kreibich’s 21%. A poll conducted by Data for Progress showed that without pushing, Gottheimer held a similar lead. While other primaries have gone against polls such as Eric Cantor in 2014, Josh Crowley in 2018, and apparently Scott Tipton in 2020, upsets of this magnitude are rare. Meanwhile Gottheimer holds a massive cash on hand advantage over Kreibich having $8.4 Million on hand as of late June, while Kreibich at the same time had $144,461 cash on hand.
Overall, Congressman Gottheimer should win the primary by a sizable amount on Tuesday and although an upset is not impossible, it is extremely unlikely to manifest. My current rating for this race is Safe Gottheimer. Kreibichs lack of any organizational support as well as low fundraising, make it unlikely that she will unseat Gottheimer in the primary, although she may perform higher than most challengers do in New Jersey.
The Primary on the Hudson
The Democratic Race in New Jersey’s 8th district has gone mostly under the radar for the last few weeks, as Congressman, and former State Assembly Speaker Albio Sires is running for a 9th term in Congress. Sires is facing a challenge in the Democratic Primary from Hector Oseguera, a Lawyer from Hudson County who is challenging Sires from the left. In recent weeks, this race has gotten more attention as Sires has reactivated his campaign twitter for the first time in decades as well as receiving a sizable amount of endorsements from Hudson County Democrats, as he seems to be facing his first competitive election in a while
The Democratic Primary Vote in this primary will be nearly entirely located in Hudson County, with nearly 80% of the 2018 primary vote being located in the county. Meanwhile Essex and Union Counties both make up about 10% of the vote with Bergen County making up only slightly above 1%. The district is a reliable Democratic Seat so the winner of the primary is virtually guaranteed to win the general election in November.
Sires has the organizational support of 4 county parties, as well as their line on the ballot. He also has the endorsements of Democratic elected officials in the District including Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop. Oseguera’s most prominent district endorsement is Jersey City Councilman James Solomon, whose endorsement had angered Hudson County Democraitc Officials, who criticized the endorsement on social media. Meanwhile Former Presidential Candidate Marianne Williamson has also endorsed Oseguera. Sires has been a fixture in Hudson County Politics for a while now, having Represented large parts of the district in the State Assembly in the early 2000’s, as well as serving as Mayor of West New York from mid 1995 until late 2006. Since then he has represented the area in Congress.
Overall I currently rate this race as Safe Sires. While the primary might be closer than usual, nothing appears to suggest that an upset is brewing. While Hudson County Democrats are coming out in force for Sires, that is not necessarily indicative of the race being tight, as there are numerous other primaries that day that they hope to win as well. While an upset is not impossible, it is not likely in this district, but with that said, this is still going to be a race I intend to watch on Election Night, and over the weeks following it.
McCann Tries Again
The Republican Primary in New Jersey’s 5th district has once again come down to a two man race. John McCann returns from 2018 and is facing off against Frank Pallota for the nomination. Josh Gottheimer flipped the district by a small margin in 2016, defeating incumbent Scott Garret, and then won re-election in 2018 by a large margin. I will talk about his primary in a separate article in a few days. The Republican primary to replace him is mostly a two-man race, with a few other people running as well.
The Republican Primary in New Jersey’s 5th district has once again come down to a two man race. John McCann returns from 2018 and is facing off against Frank Pallota for the nomination. Josh Gottheimer flipped the district by a small margin in 2016, defeating incumbent Scott Garret, and then won re-election in 2018 by a large margin. I will talk about his primary in a separate article in a few days. The Republican primary to replace him is mostly a two-man race, with a few other people running as well.
The two main Candidates for the Republican nomination are Frank Pallotta, a Businessman, and John McCann, the 2018 nominee and former Cresskill Councilman. McCann has the support of the Bergen County Republican Party, and has secured their line on the Primary Ballot, which is sure to be beneficial as Bergen accounts for the largest amount of votes in the Primary, albeit to a lesser extent then on the Democratic side. However McCann’s fundraising has been low, as it was in 2018. He also has the support of Montvale Mayor Mike Ghassali, who dropped out of the race in April. Pallotta on the other hand seems to have a broader base of support, capturing the County Lines in Passaic, Sussex, and Warren Counties, as well as the endorsements of numerous prominent New Jersey Republicans including State Senators Cardinale and Corrado, as well as Assemblywoman Holly Schepisi. Another prominent endorsement is Carlos Rendo, the mayor of Woodcliff Lake and L.G Nominee in 2017.
In 2018, McCann won the Republican nomination by a 6 point margin against Steve Lonegan. He carried Bergen County by a 13.7% margin while losing the remaining counties by a 3.7% margin. In 2018, Bergen accounted for 56% of the primary vote in the Republican Primary, while Passaic, Sussex, and Warren accounted for a combined 44% or an individual 7%, 23%, and 13% respectively.
There are two other candidates on the ballot for the Republican Nomination. James Baldini, and Hector Castillo Baldini is a teacher who I have tweeted about in the past, in part due to a section on his website that was dedicated to Pizza and Ice Cream Reviews. Castillo is a physician who I had not heard of until a week ago when I saw a bunch of lawn signs of his on the highway near my house. Neither are expected to have strong showings on the 7th.
I would say that Pallotta has the advantage going into this Primary. He has more organizational support than McCann, despite having the line in Bergen. He also has a larger number of prominent elected officials behind him than McCann, and the voters of the district may be wary of giving the nomination to him again after he lost the normally Republican district to Gottheimer by over 13% last year. My current rating for this district is Lean Pallotta.
CONCLUSION
Overall I think that both incumbents who are facing serious primary challenges are very heavily favored to win renomination, and that Brigid Harrison, David Richter, and Frank Pallotta are favored to win their nominations although none of them are prohibitive favorites and upsets are possible in all three races. We very well may not know the final results of these races tonight as votes that were postmarked by today are still going to be counted and NJ does not have a single central board of elections that counts ballots, so we have to wait for each county to report in.
