Ben’s Primary Rundown: South Jersey Showdown
The Primary for the Democratic Nomination in New Jersey’s 2nd district has turned into one of the most watched primaries in the state, as 5 candidates vie to take on Jeff Van Drew, who switched to the Republican Party in the winter. The two main candidates are Brigid Callahan Harrison, a professor at Montclair State University, and Amy Kennedy, a teacher, who is married to former Congressman Patrick Kennedy. Will Cunningham, a candidate in the primary in 2018 is also running but has received less media attention and no organizational lines. Two other candidates are running but are not considered major factors in the race. The race has been described as a proxy war between state democratic factions, with Senate President Steve Sweeney backing Harrison and Governor Murphy backing Kennedy.
The 2nd district is the largest in the state by land area and consists of a sizable amount of the Southern portion of the state. In 2018, Atlantic County.counted for 40% of the vote cast in the Democratic Primary, with Cape May, Cumberland, and Gloucester all counting for between 13% and 16% of the vote. Salem counted for 8%, Ocean for around 5.5%, and Burlington and Camden both counted for under 2% each. The district has had a hectic few years, with then State Senator Jeff Van Drew flipping the seat during the Democratic wave in 2018, by a 7.7% margin against Seth Grossman, an extremely controversial former Atlantic County Freeholder. Van Drew then voted against Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House, simply saying “No!” when asked for his vote. Van Drew then switched Parties to the Republicans in 2019, after voting against Impeaching President Trump, since it became apparent he would face a Primary Challenge, likely from Brigid Harrison, who would have the backing of the Democratic Organization in the district.
Arguably the Frontrunner, Brigid Callahan Harrison, a professor at Montclair State University, who was going to run against Van Drew in the Primary, until he switched parties, has the support of a lot of the state’s Democratic Establishment, including endorsements from both Senator’s Booker and Menendez. Amy Kennedy, who is running with the support of Progressives in the State, including Governor Murphy, is a teacher, who has lived in New Jersey since she married Patrick Kennedy in 2011. Will Cunningham, an investigator for the House Oversight Committee who ran in 2018, has the support of numerous progressive organizations in the state, and is running to the left of both Harrison and Kennedy. Meanwhile there are two other candidates in the race, John Francis, who is a commissioner in West Cape May, is also running, as is Robert Turkavage, a former FBI Agent who ran in the Republican primary in 2018, and is the most conservative candidate in the race.
Harrison has the support of Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, and Gloucester Democratic Parties, which combined account for about 45% of the Democratic Primary Vote, by 2018 numbers. Kennedy has the support of the Atlantic County Democrats Party. Atlantic County however accounts for the largest single county in terms of votes in the Democratic Primary, accounting for nearly 41% of all votes cast in the 2018 primary. Meanwhile Ocean and Salem County did not award the line, and combined accounted for almost 14% of voters in the primary electorate.
Meanwhile, endorsements in the race have been all over the place. Harrison has the most impressive endorsement list, with both Senator’s Booker and Menendez backing her, alongside Representatives Gottheimer and Sires. State Senate President Steve Sweeney supports her as well, as do numerous labor unions. Kennedy however has the support of Governor Phil Murphy, who is not on great terms with Sweeney, as well as the support of House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer. Lieutenant Governor Oliver has also endorsed her, alongside the Communication Workers of America and National Educational Association. Cunningham has the support of the Atlantic County chapter of Our Revolution, a Sanders aligned group, and numerous other progressive organizations.
Harrison has heavily leaned in on the support of Senator Cory Booker, who is up on Tuesday’s ballot as well, as he remains broadly popular with New Jersey Democrats. He featured in her first TV ad which recently aired. Harrison has attacked Kennedy for a Super PAC that supported her that appeared to only be funded by Patrick Kennedy, her husband. Patrick Kennedy, who has been involved in his spouses campaign, meanwhile has attacked Harrison as being controlled by Geroge Norcross and the South Jersey Machine. This race has become one of the closest and most interesting races in the state, as both Steve Sweeney and Phil Murphy hope for their favored candidate to prevail on Tuesday, and win the nomination to take on Jeff Van Drew in the fall.
Out of all the races on Tuesday, this one is the hardest to predict. Both Harrison and Kennedy have very realistic paths to victory. If I had to guess right now how this race is going, I would rate it as Tilt Harrison. Harrison’s campaign has more organizational support, as well as sharing the line with Cory Booker in numerous countries. This race is very possibly going to be decided in the single digits and the outcome might not be known for days, if not weeks, as mail in ballots are counted. If Harrison see’s good margins in Cape May, Gloucester, and Cumberland, while holding losses to a minimum in Atlantic, she is probably in good shape for a win, while if Kennedy can win a sizable Atlantic victory and hold her own in the rest of the district, she can win the nomination.
