Ben’s Primary Rundown: The Battle for the Third
The Republican Nomination for the Third District in New Jersey is one of the most heated and nasty races in the State right now and will likely shape up to be a close race on election day. Following Congressman Andy Kim’s defeat of Representative Tom MacArthur in 2018, the seat was considered a top target by the GOP to take back their House Majority.
The third district consists of parts of Ocean and Burlington County and each candidate is aiming to win their county by a large margin and hold their own in the others. In 2018, Burlington cast about 47% of the vote in the uncontested GOP Primary, while Ocean cast 53%. The last time the Republican nomination was contested in this district was in 2014, when Tom MacArthur beat Steve Lonegan for the nomination by nearly 20 points, winning Burlington by 20% and Ocean by 19%. Burlington Counted for 52% of the vote in 2014, compared to Oceans 48%
The Republican primary consists of two candidates, Former Hill International CEO David Richter, and Former Burlington County Freeholder Kate Gibbs. This primary become a nasty fight between the two as support largely breaks down on regional lines with Kate Gibbs having the support of the Burlington County GOP and the Ocean County GOP lining up behind Richter, who entered this race after dropping out of the race in the 2nd district when Rep Van Drew switched parties and gained Trump’s endorsement. There are more republicans in the Ocean County part of the district, which gives Richter a slight advantage going into the election day, but not a prohibitive one.
Meanwhile, Representative Kim faces no primary opposition and has secured his place on the ballot for a second term without any competition. If I had to guess who will win the election on the 7th, I think Richter is a favorite due to his support in Ocean County but Gibbs could still win by winning Burlington County by a sizable margin and not losing Ocean by too much. I would rate this race as Leans Richter as of now, and this will be a close race on election day. A big if will be what percentage of the vote each County makes up for. If both counties cast similar shares of the vote to 2018 then Richter should be a slight favorite, while either county increasing their vote share bodes well for the Candidate with the county line there. If Ocean County casts a larger share of the vote then they did in 2018, then Richter would be a strong favorite to win, while Burlington would need to likely count for a sizable amount more of the vote than usual for Gibbs to be favored.
